Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
